1: Changing telco landscape
“At the forefront of the mobile industry’s evolution in 2024 is the dramatic reduction in the cost of entry for Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs). Basically, any brand that wants to be a telecom or a “neo telecom” can now do it more easily. The landscape is undergoing significant changes, powered by advances in Business Support Systems (BSS), favourable wholesale rates, and streamlined regulations. Network sharing arrangements and white-label solutions are enabling MVNOs to operate at a fraction of the historical costs, creating a fertile ground for new entrants, and eSIMs will accelerate this further.
These transformative factors are converging to set the stage for an unprecedented explosion of MVNO brands. We predict that 2024 will see a slew of brands offering SIM-only deals as an extension of their existing product lines, enabled by the drastically reduced cost structures and the flexibility offered by eSIM technology. Imagine one of your current subscriptions adding mobile to their service as a loyalty mechanic…”
Kelvin Chaffer, CEO, Lifecycle Software
“The fibre rollout in the UK is slowing down with funding drying up or builds being completed in certain areas. We are therefore expecting to see fewer fibre engineers over time as they transfer into areas such as mobile or EVs.
The government is in the early phases of trying to make telecoms careers more visible, particularly to younger people, service leavers, and those with disabilities, so we are hoping this will make an impact on skills shortage next year.”
Louis Parratt, principal network consultant at Hamilton Barnes,
Consolidation of vendors/systems
“The telecommunications sector, driven by the continued rollout of 5G, will witness the consolidation of vendors. This consolidation will not only scale up operations but also introduce new complexities, such as the need to grow infrastructure to match the current scale of rollout. The sector will also continue to tackle the restraints of manual processes and inefficient systems that hinder agility in managing operational complexity. This barrier not only stifles growth and profitability but also requires significant time and investment to achieve optimal field performance. Recognising this, 2024 will see a growing focus on replacing legacy systems and increasing automation, aiming to streamline operations and enhance overall efficiency.”
Rob Gilbert, MD, Totalmobile
“There will be a clear dichotomy between CSPs that thrive and those that simply survive.
The outlook for CSPs in 2024 is harsh. Most are in pure survival mode, heavily indebted and mired by high-interest rates, retiring legacy networks and systems, and pursuing cost-cutting at all levels. In 2024, there will be a stark bifurcation of the industry. It will become very clear which CSPs are in trouble and which are deviating from the pack towards a stronger financial position.
Around 70% of CSPs lack strategic direction and are failing to change. Despite promised telco to tech-co transformations and 5G opportunities, the majority of CSPs will continue to measure themselves against insufficient KPIs like ARPU statistics. They will continue their ‘tried and tested’ focus on saturated consumer markets. The industry lacks the deep strategy, planning, and willingness to execute while considering all the possible opportunities that stand before them. It’s analogous to the airline industry, where price differentials are at play due to the limited opportunities to innovate on consumer products.
In contrast, the remaining 30% will have their heads above the water, steered by the right ownership structure, realistic expectations around dividend levels and a supportive shareholder community. They’ll also execute B2B opportunities appropriately, daring to build vertical businesses with ecosystem models at the heart of delivering innovation and solving challenges for customers, particularly in B2B.”
Angus Ward, CEO, Beyond Now
2. Satellite communications
“The emergence of LEO Satellites could also change the landscape in the coming years. This technology can offer a similar, if not better, service than 5G. Whilst Satellite ISPs are currently charging substantial fees for their services, this could significantly reduce over time, resulting in increasing numbers of consumers choosing them over Mobile Network Operators as their provider of choice.”
Louis Parratt, principal network consultant, Hamilton Barnes
“This past year, we’ve seen the hype around 5G begin to fade as businesses realise that it’s not all that useful for consumers and does not warrant the hefty technology deployment price tag. Next year, we’ll see a pivot towards Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites instead. Particularly for businesses operating a hybrid working model, LEO satellite networks can push the limits of ‘working from anywhere’. I expect to see this technology begin to be rolled out and adopted into carrier’s portfolios. In the same vein, we’ll also see an uptick in adoption of Security Service Edge (SSE), which allows for the management of applications and their usage across all employees and lets them work securely anywhere there is an internet connection.”
Sander Barens, CPO, Expereo
3. B2B focus
“In 2024, B2B will finally become core to CSP strategies. To date, a slavish focus on mass consumer markets has stifled CSP success. While the latest round of global CSP revenue reports demonstrates that B2B growth is outperforming B2C, TM Forum’s latest annual telco revenue growth report revealed that B2B revenues are growing faster than B2C: 5.6% versus 1.6%.
CSPs will experience a penny drop moment, driven in part by greater pressure to carve a path to growth while innovating faster and investing more quickly. Realisation will hit that opportunities to create value for customers are too limited in B2C. And 5G for consumers will not be enough. If necessity is the mother of invention, then pressure is the mother of reinvention.
That shift in mindset will be coupled with collaboration between CSPs going mainstream. That will look like a connected ecosystem of telecoms, industry and technology partners that promotes and facilitates collaboration and co-innovation to address global B2B market opportunities. Smart CSPs will look for ways to de-risk investment and accelerate and optimise the commercialisation and go-to-market of B2B solutions. This new model that centres on a coalescence of ideas will see a global CSP network tap into insights and best practices and grow the reach of proven solutions by opening up new market opportunities and global sales channels.”
Angus Ward, CEO, Beyond Now
“The rise of B2B2X offerings with an enterprise focus marks a significant shift in the telecommunications industry. Companies are now extending their services to other businesses (B2B), creating a network of services that serve both business and end customers (B2X). This collaboration and service extension model is intended to facilitate innovation and create new revenue streams. Whilst 5G private networks will definitely be a core capability required by many enterprises, there is a growing trend for partnerships offering cloud security solutions, a renewed interest in collaborative communications platforms with a CPaaS offering and IoT being the top services dominating product portfolios. By providing tailored, enterprise-focused solutions, telecom companies foster a more symbiotic relationship with businesses, driving efficiency and productivity.”
Hitesh Morar, chief product officer, Tecnotree
“At present, there are very few 5G business networks deployed, and many are still in a trial phase. It is likely that a very small percentage of businesses will need a 5G network. However, if 5G does become more commonplace, it is extremely secure. Like 4G, strong security is designed into the standard, yet there have been no significant security breaches on 5G networks. The security risks will arise outside the 5G network, for example, where it breaks into the business IT network. Going into 2024, the key issue won’t be 5G security but whether a 5G business network is, in fact, necessary. Most businesses will find that the benefits 5G brings are insufficient to justify the additional costs and complexities involved.”
Dr William Webb, IEEE fellow, CTO, Access Partnership
4. IoT
IoT ecosystems will boost P5G and Edge adoption.
“The combination of IoT, Private 5G, and edge computing will enable organisations to gain real-time insights and make better decisions. With enterprises accelerating digitisation efforts, more connectivity and even more devices are needed as enterprises continue to digitise their physical environments.
The edge will significantly grow in importance as enterprises need data to feed analytics platforms powered by AI/ML. Increased automation due to labour shortages, computer vision, and digital twins will be key use cases driving the need for robust edge capabilities.
To go further, organisations need outside help, with 8 in 10 expecting their dependency on third-party edge services to grow over the next two years.”
Devin Yaung, SVP, Group Enterprise IoT Products and Services, NTT Ltd.
The growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) continues to redefine the telecommunications landscape. With 5G and edge computing, we expect to see a surge in IoT applications in 2024. IoT’s potential to interconnect devices, from smart homes to industrial machinery, is creating vast opportunities. With AI taking centre stage in driving intelligence in many processes and decision-making, we expect an unprecedented surge in this area. IoT enables real-time data collection, streamlining of operations, predictive maintenance, and enhanced customer experiences.
From Hitesh Morar, chief product officer, Tecnotree
Plentiful IoT devices coupled with AI blur the lines between real and virtual.
“Many different analysts predict different numbers in terms of the number of new IoT devices that will be deployed in 2024, but common across all of them is that they predict numbers in the billions.
Using the most conservative estimates, it’s safe to say that at least 5 billion new IoT devices will be deployed, connected, managed, and producing data. Some of what makes this possible is due to true wireless devices and their impact on data (edge computing), but there’s another aspect as well.
This enables an unprecedented ability to ingest data about the real world through many sensors and by combining data from multiple types of sensors. And this is where AI comes into the picture. AI as a technology is very well suited to look at and make sense of the complex web of data being spun by a range of data types coming at us in real-time.”
Bjorn Andersson, senior director, Global Digital Innovation Marketing and Strategy, Hitachi Vantara
“2024 will see a greater transition to smart factories, with increased integration of AI, 5G, Internet of Things (IoT), data analytics, and cloud computing. This will bring cost savings, product quality, safety and sustainability benefits.
2023 was a record year for 3D printer installations, according to our 3D Printing Trend Report, and the market is set to benefit from the efficiency, speed, and accessibility that AI will bring. Prototyping is still the top application for 3D printing. Still, we see increased production of end-use parts, especially with metal additive manufacturing (AM), meaning it will continue to grow as a fully-fledged manufacturing method.
This will be enhanced with the application of AI – detecting and correcting errors before they occur will save time and increase safety. Specific programs like ChatGPT simplify the design process by enabling voice commands rather than always requiring coding to program geometrical complexities in a design.”
Bjoern Klaas, vice president and managing director of Protolabs Europe
“Ambient IoT — where anything and everything can be connected to the cloud through tiny, postage-stamp-size, battery-free microcomputers — will transform physical business or retail operations from a “scan it” culture to a “sense it” culture. Instead of staff manually checking the status of stock, assets, and equipment, they can log into cloud-based interfaces for immediate visibility of an entire organisation and its supply chain. Bring in AI’s predictive and modelling functionality, and these passive sensing capabilities can be leveraged to automate logistics processes while allowing businesses and retailers to respond rapidly to demand signals for better service levels, higher sales, and less waste.”
Stephen Statler, CMO, Wiliot
“The new standard for remote SIM provisioning (RSP), SGP.32, will shake up the IoT industry in 2024. SGP.32 will shift the control of network profile downloads away from networks into devices, simplifying the interconnection arrangements that connectivity providers must manage with mobile network operators (MNOs). Companies planning IoT deployments, particularly those designed to be multi-regional, will reap the benefits of the new standard supported by their cellular connectivity provider.
Those benefits include minimising total cost of ownership because devices can be reprogrammed to pick up local networks at local rates. That could be soon after devices are deployed, or years into their lifetime when new commercial options or new operators enter the market. By minimising the required number of SKUs, companies can simplify production and distribution to save on logistics, manufacturing, and inventory costs.
SGP.32, together with RSP, which enables OTA SIM programming, will help with the scalability of international IoT programmes. Companies that deploy IoT devices to be in place for an extended time, that manufacture in one country and export to many others, or those with devices that transmit high data volumes in more than one country will benefit massively. Network profile switching will help future-proof deployments for these and other IoT installations.”
Paul Bullock, chief product officer, Wireless Logic
5. Cloud and 6G
IMS deployments in MNO networks will finally be cloud native
“In 2024, we expect to see additional production network deployments of CNFs for specific applications. While CNF implementations have been deployed for several years for OSS/BSS applications, we foresee this being expanded to core network functions that enable or enhance the services that CSP sell. From our perspective, a leading cloud-native implementation will be the IMS core solution required to provide 4G and 5G voice services. We also expect to see cloud-native deployments of analytics applications to complement cloud-native IMS deployments, specifically to provide visibility and actionable insights into Voice over LTE (4G) and Voice over New Radio (5G) services. On a related note, while we expect most of these cloud-native IMS core deployments will be on MNO private clouds, it is quite likely there will be some MNOs who will decide to deploy their IMS core applications on a public cloud.”
By Dan Teichman, director of solutions marketing, Ribbon Communications
The road to 6G
“5G is far from reaching its full potential, so any talk of 6G in the coming year(s) for the Telco industry is very premature. Frankly, many 5G networks are 4G with a fresh coat of paint— the backend remains largely unchanged. There are offerings to automate the backend more, taking us more towards true 5G, but I don’t believe Telcos will invest at scale without a compelling path to monetisation. So far, customers aren’t willing to pay much extra just for a bit more bandwidth.
Until the industry properly delivers on the 5G vision and unlocks greater monetisation potential, 6G will remain a distant dream. In 2024, telcos need to focus on learning to walk before they can run. Delivering the advanced capabilities 5G enables for customers and businesses should be the priority over chasing the next shiny object. There’s still so much value to be realised from 5G if we make the effort to execute on it fully.”
Christian Bucholdt, AVP Engineering, Persistent Systems
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